A recent analysis of government data by The Guardian has revealed that more than 90 primary schools in England, many of which are located in cities and towns, may close or are at risk of closure due to low attendance rates, with over two-thirds of their places unfilled. This decline in student numbers is attributed to a combination of falling birth rates and young families leaving urban areas due to increasing childcare and housing costs. On average, 66% of places in 156 schools that have closed since 2009-10 were unfilled. Another four primary schools have already proposed permanent closure. The problem is most pronounced in urban centres with almost half of at-risk schools located there, a quarter in rural villages and one in six in more isolated parts of the country.
Across England, there are currently more unfilled primary school places than in any year since 2009-10 – equivalent to 570,000 pupils or 11.5% of total capacity. The Department for Education (DfE) expects pupil numbers in state-funded schools to decline by 944,000 over the next 10 years. Local authorities are grappling with how to manage falling pupil numbers, with Birmingham city council recently announcing plans to reduce the number of primary school places by more than 300 by decreasing the number of classes rather than closing schools.
However, the LGA spokesperson has raised concerns with the fact that local authorities have no direct control over academies schools. The LGA has argued that "Councils should be given powers to reduce the size of, or close academies – as they do with maintained schools – where there is evidence of a significant drop in demand and a need to ensure a school remains financially viable." The challenges are particularly acute in the south-west and south-east, where most of the schools with high vacancy rates were located.
Furthermore, some schools may have not had problems filling their places but have decided to close for other reasons, including the size of the reception year. About 160 primary schools had closed and about 570 had merged since 2009, with 16,791 primary schools operating in England during the 2021-22 academic year. Although the vacancy rate is not the only indication of the risk of closure, some areas are expected to experience a significant decline in reception-age children. In some regions, there may be a projection that the number of reception-age children could shrink by almost 20% in the next five years.
A spokesperson for the Department for Education stated, "Since 2010, we have established nearly 1.2 million learning spaces, which is the most extensive addition to educational capacity in at least two generations. We collaborate intimately with regional administrative bodies to ensure that every child in the country is guaranteed admission to a school and to back the sustained durability of their schools."
